Category Archives: housing affordability

In 2018, these homes will sell the fastest

With reduced buying power next year, expect house hunters to scoop up everything under $500,000.

Paul D’Abruzzo, an investment advisor with Rockstar Real Estate, says that while most people will qualify for less money on their mortgages, they won’t be completely shut out of the market. They will simply adjust their demands.

“If somebody was preapproved for $500,000, their new approval will be $400-450,000, so they will lose 10-20% of their preapproval amount,” he told CREW. “It won’t shut people out, it will just move them lower. If some were on the brink of getting approved, you’ll lose some there, but lower-priced properties will do very, very well.”

In Toronto, that will put single-family detached homes even further out of the reach than they are now, but the popularity of condos will keep soaring.

“In Toronto, with everybody’s sightline coming down, condos will be the most popular,” said D’Abruzzo. “In the GTA, like Mississauga or Vaughan, it will be condos and maybe townhouses.”

Single-family detached homes will become difficult, but not impossible, to afford. The Greater Toronto Area’s fringes still have moderately priced detached houses for sale, and even with the new mortgage rules, that won’t change.

“In Hamilton, Kitchener and St. Catharines, $400,000 gets you a detached home,” he said, “so you’ll see a continued trend of population spreading out into the horseshoe.”

According to D’Abruzzo, 2018 will not be kind to sellers—at least not through the first few months—but he recommends being patient.

“Right now, people are trying to get their places sold before the mortgage rules kick in,” he said. “Next year, inventory will be crap in January and February. If anyone is scared or fearful and waiting to sell their house, patience is the solution right now. Just wait and see, because nobody knows for sure what it will be like.”

Akshay Dev, a sales agent with REMAX Realty One, echoed that wait-and-see approach. While nobody will miss out because of too much time on the sidelines, Dev says Toronto’s chronic housing shortage will continue working in sellers’ favour next year.

“Whatever correction was needed is done, and in the spring we should see the market picking up and being strong,” he said. “In the Toronto area, there’s a huge shortage of housing, so it’s still going to be a seller’s market, but I don’t expect crazy bidding wars. Sellers will still get the prices they’re expecting.”

Contrary to popular belief, first-time buyers won’t have trouble purchasing starter homes, especially because cheaper abodes will be in high demand. However, they might live in those homes longer than the historical average.

“Historically, we’ve seen that when people graduate from their first buying experience, it takes anywhere from three to five years to move into the next level of housing, but it may become five to seven years with new rules,” said Dev.

Source: Canada Real Estate Magazine – by Neil Sharma 8 Dec 2017
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Mississauga Ranked 14th Most Unaffordable Area to Live in in North America

You knew it was expensive to live in Mississauga. With detached houses costing buyers anywhere from $800,000 to $1 million and compact condos selling for over $400,000, residents are turning to the rental market and being equally as disappointed to see that prices are no more kind there (in some cases, two-bedroom suites can cost close to $2,000 a month).

But while most people understand the GTA is a costly place to call home, some might be surprised to find out that Mississauga is one of the most expensive cities in all of North America.

According to data by real estate company Point2Homes, it’s the fourteenth most unaffordable real estate market on on the continent.

Having recently hit its lowest level in the past decades, housing affordability is definitely a highly discussed topic for Canadians today,” writes Point2Homes in a recent report. “With this in mind, our team of researchers looked at the 50 most populous cities in North America to determine the affordability ratio for each. Based on the numbers, Mississauga is the 14th most unaffordable real estate market on the continent.”

To show the affordability levels across North America, Point2Homes says it examined the home price to income ratio (also called median multiple).

Data shows that with a median multiple of 7.4, Mississauga is a “severely unaffordable market,” coming in fourteenth in the North American ranking and third in Canada—after Vancouver and Toronto.

But while the numbers aren’t great, people can still take comfort in the fact that Mississauga is more affordable than Toronto and significantly more affordable than Vancouver (which is actually number one on the list). It’s also cheaper—which shouldn’t surprise anyone—than such famous cities as San Francisco, Manhattan, NYC, Boston, San Jose and Seattle.

Surprisingly, it’s more expensive to live in than Dallas, Portland, Oregon, Chicago, Las Vegas, Houston, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Philadelphia.

According to Point2Homes, it would take 10 fewer years to pay off a house in Mississauga than it would in Vancouver. That said, the report notes that, when looking at the raw numbers, Mississauga’s median family income stands out – it’s bigger than the income in Los Angeles and even New York.

If a Mississauga resident were to put their entire income towards their home, it would still take close to a decade—7.4 years—to pay it off.

Of course, this report isn’t the first to notice how unaffordable Mississauga has becom.

The City of Mississauga’s Planning and Development Committee recently adopted the city’s first housing strategy: Making Room for the Middle: A Housing Strategy for Mississauga.

According to the strategy, there’s a pressing and dire need to create affordable housing for middle income earners who are in danger of being priced out of the city.

Some of the draft’s findings are alarming, even though they’re not at all surprising.

According to the draft, a home is considered affordable when its inhabitants spend 30 per cent or less of their earnings on housing costs. In Mississauga, 1 in 3 households are spending more than 30 per cent of their income on housing and research suggests this number will rise.

Middle income households typically net between $50,000 and $100,000 a year and middle income earners include nurses, teachers and social workers. When people in this income bracket decide to try to purchase a home, they can typically afford to pay between $270,000 and $400,000—meaning their only options are condos and a limited selection of townhouses.

As far as rent goes, the city says the average rental unit costs $1,200 a month and that rental inventory is 1.6 per cent (which is troublingly low).

So, what has the city proposed to do?

  • Petition senior levels of government for taxation policies and credits that incent affordable housing
  • Pilot tools such as pre-zoning and a Development Permit System to develop affordable housing in appropriate locations (close to transit systems, for example)
  • Encourage the Region of Peel to develop an inclusionary zoning incentive program for private and nonprofit developers
  • Continue to engage with housing development stakeholders
  • Encourage the Region of Peel to investigate the cost of deferring development charges on the portion of affordable units provided in newly constructed multiple dwellings
  • The city has also been working to legalize accessory units (better known as basement apartments). At this juncture, basement suites remain a very viable option for people looking for affordable units, as the suites tend to cost $1,000 or less. Right now, most units remain unregistered and the city is responsible for levying fines against landlords operating unregulated units.

The city is also going to welcome a more affordable units in Mississauga’s City Centre neighbourhood.

The Daniels Corporation, the development firm who has built multiple properties in the City Centre and Erin Mills Town Centre areas in the city, is slated to construct an affordable housing project at 360 City Centre Drive.

As for how the development will work, 40 per cent of the units (70 in total) will be Rent Geared to Income suites. These units will take residents off affordable housing waitlist. The city also says that 60 per cent (or 104 units) will be set aside for renters and owned by the Region. They will be available to middle-class residents.

A second tower on the same podium will boast market-value units, creating a mixed-income property on City Centre grounds.

With the Hurontario LRT coming, there’s a chance property values along the LRT corridor will increase, potentially pushing people out of the area. The city is also tackling other major development projects, including complete redevelopment of some waterfront areas in the Port Credit and Lakeview neighbourhoods.

While the city is certainly doing its part to address affordability, it remains to be seen how the housing market will react to a bigger and more sophisticated and urbane Mississauga.

Perhaps the worst is yet to come.

Source: Insauga.com – by Ashley Newport on November 23, 2017

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Liberals look to ease affordability concerns with release of housing strategy

Liberals look to ease affordability concerns with release of housing strategy

The plan will put a heavy focus on housing supply building tens of thousands of affordable housing units over the next decade and repurposing other cash to maintain housing supplements.

There are expectations that the plan will also include a new portable benefit that low-income renters can carry with them through the market.

Those are just two of a number of anticipated measures aimed at making housing in Canada more affordable, particularly for the 1.7 million households that are forced to spend more of their disposable income than they should on housing.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be in Toronto to unveil the details of the plan, while Social Development Minister Jean-Yves Duclos travels to Vancouver to make a simultaneous announcement on the West Coast to mark National Housing Day.

Recently released census data found that 1.7 million households were in “core housing need” in 2016, meaning they spent more than one-third of their before-tax income on housing that may be substandard or doesn’t meet their needs.

Outside of Vancouver, the cities with the highest rates of core housing need were in Ontario. In Toronto, close to one in five households were financially stretched the highest rate of any city in the country.

The government hopes that building 80,000 new affordable rental units, along with billions more in spending over the next decade, will lift 500,000 of those families out of core housing need and help a further 500,000 avoid or get out of homelessness.

The details of how the spending will roll out are of keen interest to housing providers and cities. Municipal leaders have been meeting with federal officials this week to talk about the national housing strategy.

The Liberals laid the financial backbone for the plan in this year’s federal budget, promising $11.2 billion over a decade in new spending. About $5 billion of that money the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is expected to turn into $15 billion by leveraging $10 billion in private investment.

Still, most of the money won’t be spent until after the next election in 2019, which concerns anti-poverty groups.

Those groups are planning demonstrations in multiple cities today, demanding the Liberals spend the full $11.2 billion before the next election.

Source: The Canadian Press

Liberals look to ease affordability concerns with release of housing strategy

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Mississauga Moves Towards Making Housing More Affordable

Source: Insauga.com – by Ashley Newport on October 17, 2017

It’s no secret that housing in Mississauga (and the overall 905 area) has become increasingly more expensive over time. With detached houses costing buyers $900,000 to $1 million and compact condos selling for over $400,000, residents are turning to the rental market and being equally as disappointed to see that prices are no more kind there (in some cases, two-bedroom suites can cost close to $2,000 a month).

The housing crisis is one that Mississauga has been, to its credit, taking seriously.

The City of Mississauga’s Planning and Development Committee recently adopted the city’s first housing strategy: Making Room for the Middle: A Housing Strategy for Mississauga.

According to the strategy, there’s a pressing and dire need to create affordable housing for middle income earners who are in danger of being priced out of the city.

Some of the draft’s findings are alarming, even though they’re not at all surprising.

Some key facts:

  • A home is considered affordable when its inhabitants spend 30 per cent or less of their earnings on housing costs
  • 1 in 3 households are spending more than 30 per cent of their income on housing and research suggests this number will rise
  • Middle income households typically net between $50,000 and $100,000 a year
  • Middle income earners include nurses, teachers and social workers
  • People who want to purchase homes can typically afford to pay between $270,000 and $400,000, meaning their only options are condos and a limited selection of townhouses
  • Housing prices are adversely affected by supply and demand imbalances (there’s much more demand than there is supply)
  • The average rental unit costs $1,200 a month
  • Rental inventory is 1.6 per cent (which is troublingly low)

The city is focusing on middle income earners because they typically make too much to qualify for government assistance, but still cannot afford to rent or purchase homes in the city. When people are priced out of their communities, the social and economic fabric of the area is compromised. If the middle class is forced to move further away, the city will only be suitable for very high and low-income earners–something leaders are hoping to prevent.

The city says the Strategy is Mississauga’s plan for fostering a supportive environment for the development of a range of housing that is affordable for all. While it targets middle-income households, it will also benefit lower-income households.

To be clear, the Region of Peel is responsible for subsidized housing (meaning housing associated with low-income earners who require special assistance to afford adequate shelter in Mississauga, Brampton and Caledon). While attention must still be paid to lower-income residents (Peel has a notoriously long subsidized housing waitlist and too few shelters for those in need), middle-income households have not been widely supported in terms of housing supply.

Generally speaking, middle-income earners—think social workers, journalists and clerical workers—do not qualify for financial assistance and cannot afford housing at current market prices.

Ideally, the strategy will help provide opportunities for lower-income households by freeing up supply.

The strategy offers 40 actions supported by the Mississauga Housing Advisory Panel, a group of over 20 housing professionals from the public, private and non-profit sectors that shared their knowledge, advice and solutions. It also includes a five-year action plan centred on municipal powers and funding partnerships to achieve its goals.

“Housing is an issue that touches every Mississauga resident and business,” said Mayor Bonnie Crombie. “Council has already endorsed in-principle, actions to protect existing rental housing and create a housing-first policy for surplus lands. Making Room for the Middle: A Housing Strategy for Mississauga is the City’s plan to provide, together with our partners, a supportive development environment for a range of affordable housing.”

So, what has the city proposed?

  • Petition senior levels of government for taxation policies and credits that incent affordable housing
  • Pilot tools such as pre-zoning and a Development Permit System to develop affordable housing in appropriate locations (close to transit systems, for example)
  • Encourage the Region of Peel to develop an inclusionary zoning incentive program for private and nonprofit developers
  • Continue to engage with housing development stakeholders
  • Encourage the Region of Peel to investigate the cost of deferring development charges on the portion of affordable units provided in newly constructed multiple dwellings

The city has also been working to legalize accessory units (better known as basement apartments). At this juncture, basement suites remain a very viable option for people looking for affordable units, as the suites tend to cost $1,000 or less. Right now, most units remain unregistered and the city is responsible for levying fines against landlords operating unregulated units.

“Making Room for the Middle: A Housing Strategy for Mississauga defines how the City of Mississauga will address the affordable housing crisis in our City,” said Crombie in a statement. “We’re ready to do our part to ensure that those who want to live in Mississauga can afford to do so. The strategy provides bold, innovative solutions to increasing affordability. Safe, affordable housing is a pillar of a complete city and we will achieve our goals if we work together with our partners to create a supportive development environment for a range of affordable housing for all.”

According to the staff report, the strategy has received wide support since its release on March 29 from residents, agency partners and the building and development industry.

Speaking of the development industry, it appears that one affordable housing project is already in the works.

A few weeks ago, we learned that a brand new building development has been planned for the City Centre area.

The Daniels Corporation, the development firm who has built multiple properties in the City Centre and Erin Mills Town Centre areas in the city, is slated to construct an affordable housing project at 360 City Centre Drive.

Since this building will help the city fulfill its mandate, council will a provide a sizeable $2.7 million to the Region of Peel to offset development charges for the project.

The Region approved funding of the much-needed project to the tune of $65 million ($65,966,522, to be exact) on June 22. After approving funding, the Region asked Mississauga to “consider granting relief from City Development Charges (the aforementioned $2.7 million) by waiving or providing a grand to offset such DCs.”

As for how the development will work, 40 per cent of the units (70 in total) will be Rent Geared to Income suites. These units will take residents off affordable housing waitlist. The city also says that 60 per cent (or 104 units) will be set aside for renters and owned by the Region. They will be available to middle-class residents.

A second tower on the same podium will boast market-value units, creating a mixed-income property on City Centre grounds.

The movement of the affordable housing strategy is encouraging, especially since the city has been working to build consensus for sometime now.

The Mississauga Housing Forum held last spring enabled stakeholders to hear from renowned housing experts, “road test’ the strategy and provide their input. City staff say they have since have fine-tuned the strategy based on the feedback received.

“We heard from our residents and stakeholders and are taking action,” said Ed Sajecki, commissioner of planning and building. “Our strategy reflects the input we received. We can now create, together with our partners, a housing affordability solution that could be a model for other Canadian cities.”

The city says the next steps include actions to help preserve purpose-built rental housing, support for the Region of Peel in implementing its programs, and ongoing work with senior levels of government to make their surplus land available for affordable housing and provide standardized local housing data to measure housing affordability.

The final strategy will go to Council for approval on October 25.

 
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New financing rules could drive more consumers into more volatile mortgages

Proposed changes to mortgage rules may force some consumers to consider more volatile variable rate mortgages in order to qualify under a strict stress test proposed by Canada’s banking regulator.

Guidelines published by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions in July, which the agency is now receiving feedback on, would change the qualifying rules for uninsured mortgages in Canada — a less regulated segment of the market made up of consumers who have down payments of 20 per cent or more.

The rules under consideration would force consumers to qualify for loans based on the rate on their contract plus 200 basis points, a move that might lead some people into shorter term loans that have lower rates and are therefore easier to qualify for.

“It could be one of the unintended consequences,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC World Markets Inc., about the changes. Tal believes OSFI will modify its proposal before it is finalized and one of the factors under consideration could be how the rules might discourage Canadians from locking in their rates.

Rob McLister, the founder of ratespy.com, said the potential impact of the changes can be seen when examining the current yield curve, which shows longer term rates are still much higher. As an example, with the prime rate now 3.2 per cent and the average discount on a five-year variable rate mortgage around 65 basis points, that means those consumers would have to qualify based on a rate of 2.55 per cent plus 200 basis points or 4.55 per cent.

 

“Generally, the variable will be cheaper. Maybe the one-year or two years (even more so). We have people who can’t qualify because of 10 basis points. I think it will force at least 10 per cent of uninsured borrowers to look at shorter-term rates that have more risk,” said McLister, who notes the average five-year fixed rate mortgage is more like 3.19 per cent.

Those consumers looking for the safety of a five-year rate would end up having to qualify based on 5.19 per cent with the 64 extra basis points meaning they could get a larger loan by borrowing at short-term rates.

The Bank of Canada has raised its overnight lending rate twice in the last two months and may do so again in October. Such hikes, which affect variable-rate products that are tied to prime, are part of the risk that comes with a floating rate product.

CONVENTIONAL BORROWER

McLister said a typical conventional borrower would qualify for a home that’s about six per cent more expensive by choosing a lower more volatile variable, one- or two-year rate instead of a “safer” five-year fixed.

That assessment was based on latest median household income from Statistics Canada, average non-mortgage debt, a 30-year amortization and a 20 per cent down payment

The OSFI changes fly in the face of previous government policy, which had tried to entice people into longer-term products by making the qualifying easier.

Consumers with less than 20 per cent down on a mortgage and their loans backed by Ottawa already must qualify based on the five-year Bank of Canada qualifying rate of 4.84 per cent. That rule change was made in October, 2016 but previously those high-ratio borrowers could use the rate on their contract if they were locking in for five years or longer.

Robert Kavcic a senior economist with Bank of Montreal, said households in Toronto — currently facing rapidly declining sales and an average price correction of almost 25 per cent from the April peak, can withstand more rate increases but he agrees people on the fringe may turn to shorter-term money to get into the housing market.

“I think the goal is to make sure people can pay higher rates two or three years down the road,” said Kavcic.”It does sound like there is more caution (about proposed changes) given what is happening in the Toronto market.”

Source: Financial Post – Gary Marr gmarr@postmedia.com

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Six figure income needed to buy almost any GTA home: report

A house for sale near Islington Ave. and the Queensway in a May 16 file photo. It takes a household income of $200,663 a year to afford the average detached Toronto house, according to a report from TheRedPin brokerage.

As the cost of Toronto-area housing rises, so do the financing challenges for young adults. Report says $200,000 a year is the average income needed for a detached house in Toronto.

It takes a six-figure income to afford virtually any Toronto area home — even a condo — and that expense is presenting a considerable financial challenge to an important cohort of millennial consumers.

Separate studies from two real estate companies on Thursday paint pictures of the high income requirements of affording a home, and of the housing aspirations of Canada’s “peak millennials” — adults 25 to 30.

It takes a household income of more than $200,000 a year to carry the $1.15 million cost of the average detached house in the Toronto region, according to a report from TheRedPin brokerage.

Even the average condo apartment, costing about $511,000, requires an annual income of $92,925 to afford a $1,933 monthly mortgage, plus taxes, utilities and condo fees, according to the report.

Meantime, 59 per cent of those aged 25 to 30 in Ontario would like to own a detached house in the next five years, but only 30 per cent think they will be able to afford one, according a new Royal LePage report based on findings by Leger research.

According to TheRedPin, buyers need more than $150,000 a year to cover the cost of a home in half of 22 Toronto area municipalities.

The average Toronto home price, $864,228, is affordable to buyers with an annual income of $147,750 — though that average may be skewed lower by the large number of condos on the market.

The most expensive real estate in the region is in King Township. Buyers there need $264,000 a year to afford the monthly mortgage of $5,883 and other expenses for an average home price of $1.6 million.

In Oshawa, an annual income of $108,773 is enough to afford the average home price of $552,268.

TheRedPin study averaged home prices over the first seven months of the year, and assumed a 20 per cent down payment and a 2.99 per cent mortgage, amortized over 25 years. The income requirements took into account the areas’ average utility costs and property taxes and estimated condo fees based on a 900-square-foot condo townhouse and a 750-square-foot apartment.

 

 

Matching home prices to income levels gives buyers a more precise picture of what they can afford, said the brokerage’s Enzo Ceniti.

“It can be hard to grasp exactly how much you need to earn to be able to invest in a home. Information about home prices increasing or decreasing by a certain percentage isn’t as relevant or as personalized,” he said.

Drew Rankin, 29, is part of an age group that will grow by 17 per cent in Canada by 2021. He is among the 35 per cent in that cohort that already own a home, according to a report from Royal LePage.

Like 25 per cent of his contemporaries, Rankin and his girlfriend had help from family with the down on the one-bedroom-plus-den he had been renting near King St. and Spadina Ave. for about $465,000.

The 700-square-foot unit had the layout and location Rankin and his girlfriend wanted.

“In terms of where our mindset was, the lifestyle was top of mind, accessibility to friends, restaurants, even work. Sports, concerts, everything is right there,” he said.

But the condo isn’t big enough to raise a family.

“I grew up in London, Ont., in a middle-class neighbourhood with a yard and I don’t necessarily view that as an attainable lifestyle for me (in Toronto), at least not in the next 10 years,” said Rankin.

People in their late 20s face significant affordability barriers compared to their parents when it comes to housing in Toronto, said Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper. While cities have the best employment prospects for young adults, they are also the most expensive property markets.

The company’s report, he said, “is either a sobering insight into the challenges young people will face as they try to build homes and families or it’s a really optimistic view of Canadian economics. Two thirds of people say they’re going to have a difficult time buying a house because of affordability but nearly all of them want one — 87 per cent,” he said.

“More adults in Ontario than anywhere else in Canada hope to own a home in the short-term even though it’s the most expensive place in Canada to own a home,” said Soper.

Condo owner Rankin thinks Toronto real estate offers good value “relative to other global centres.”

“I have a lot of friends in New York,” he said, “and that’s a totally different scenario.”

Source: TheStar.com By 

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Commentary: Supply not the main factor in Toronto’s housing woes

Commentary: Supply not the main factor in Toronto’s housing woes

While various quarters have cited supply scarcity as a central driver in Toronto’s long-running housing affordability issues, latest census data actually belies that notion, according to a Bloomberg analyst duo.

In their latest piece, markets observers Erik Hertzberg and Theophilos Argitis argued that “the most important question remains the extent to which speculation is driving demand.”

“Ideally, fundamentals such as demographics and employment are at play, and the price gains reflect natural household growth getting ahead of supply. If that’s true, the market should eventually stabilize once new supply kicks in,” Hertzberg and Argitis wrote. “A situation where speculators are bidding up prices would be much more problematic.”

“Canada’s 2016 census, which the statistics agency is releasing piecemeal this year, is providing some insight into the debate. The results: supply may not be the big problem many people thought it was.”

The data revealed that between 2011 and 2016, the total number of Toronto households increased by 146,200 (up to 2.14 million). To compare, the number of newly completed homes stood at 175,825 projects.

“In other words, supply of new houses exceeded real household demand by almost 30,000 over those five years,” the duo stated. “That throws cold water on the argument — voiced particularly by the industry — that the city’s affordability crisis won’t be resolved unless the government introduces measures to help increase supply.”

More importantly, Toronto is rapidly running out of buildable space, “evident in census data that show its population density has surpassed 1,000 people per square kilometre for the first time ever, another factor that should continue supporting prices for detached homes.”

Source: Mortgage Broker News – by Ephraim Vecina15 Aug 2017

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